Popular support indispensable to win the long battle
Resolution on the situation in the Gulf and Russia
The USA is desperately trying to preserve its waning supremacy. By employing its strongest tool, its military superiority, they are attempting to halt the secular decline. But they are about to reach a tipping point fuelling the fires of resistance even more. They are invested in too many wars while all economic, social, political and cultural factors go reverse. The Zionist genocide is the symbolic expression of a general situation of imperialist massacre but undefeated resistance for which US-Israeli led imperialism is to pay a heavy price down the line.
To strike their enemies pre-emptively has been the doctrine of the neo-cons since the very onset of the American Empire. But already the “war on terror” launched two decades back has essentially produced defeats (or at maximum stalemates) like in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Against the backdrop of the socio-economic disaster of US-led capitalist globalisation and the rise of China determined not to subordinate, the resistances of both states as well as people have been growing ever since. The world is pregnant with a multipolar order. But the USA does whatever possible to abort the unborn child and to deliver some decisive anti-imperialist victories will be necessary.
These global resistances have been reflected in the frictions and power struggles within the USA itself giving birth to Trumpism and scattering the bipartite political system. The Republican party nearly collapsed while the Democratic party is forced to move to the left mimicking more distance to Zionism. Trump heads a kind of imperialist populism in order to recover some parts of the middle classes in a peculiar combination of White supremacy and a promise to end the permanent US wars. Already by now this has been proven impossible and will inevitably lead to the decomposition of Trumpism with unknown results. The prospect of structurally higher petroleum prices will accelerate the decay. It is safe to predict further conflict coming, raising the spectre of civil war.
Trump wanted to engineer a compromise with Russia violating the historic consensus of US imperialism to go for the subordination of Russia as an indispensable condition to maintain the empire. (The deeper strategic idea behind is that Russia needs to be split from China to keep the latter down – but the Neo-con hybris does not allow this Nixonian turn on reverse as it discards the monopolar conception.) The momentum reached its climax with the Alaska summit in August 2025. But Trump was not strong enough to impose himself on the state apparatus.
There are many reasons for that: The weakening military momentum of Russia. The anti-Russian fervour of the EU (to be analysed separately). The perseverance of Ukrainian nationalism being able to keep a mass support. The weakness of the peace movement in the West.
One further factor consists in the deep penetration of Zionism into the US state apparatus with the neo-con faction as its total amalgamation in its heart which eventually bogged down Trump on Russia. Trumpism is fully dependent on Zionism not only lending unlimited support to the genocide in Palestine but also embarking on the unwinnable war on Iran instigated by Israel. In fact, turning against Zionism, as a part of the Maga base is about to do, will inevitably lead to the split and downfall of Trumpism.
For 30 years the neo-cons have been campaigning for the full-blown military aggression to topple the Islamic anti-imperialist state in Iran. But the US establishment had so far refrained from such an adventure due to the high risk to produce another failure like in Iraq, which is by any rate a much weaker country. As Hitler’s two front war got no rationale but the racist furore of absolute Arian supremacy, the Zionist idea to annihilate Iran has no rational base but self-deception and the very same White supremacy.
It is an irony of history that it was Trump to follow the neo-cons into the abys despite his promise to break with the deep state. He went into the adventure and miserably failed as was predictable. No “regime change”, but an enormously strengthened Islamic government both internally as well as externally. The total demise of the pro-imperialist Iranian opposition as the popular masses including the Westernised middle classes turned to the patriotic defence of their country. Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz (which will remain as a bargaining chip pushing up energy prices) and power projection into the Gulf putting in question the very societal model of the Gulf pro-imperialist oil states. This is being expressed by the de facto end of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). Saudi Arabia had to realign with Turkey and Qatar softening its war on the Muslim Brotherhood which can be considered popular base for a less US-Israel subservient capitalist model of rule. Turkey has been gradually strengthened wielding patronage over Syria but also being confronted with the (popular) demand to reign in Israel’s rampage. If Erdogan and his successors are able maintaining the balancing acts between the powers (reflecting the multi-polar momentum and weakening NATO of which it is an important member), Turkey is candidate to re-establish itself as the leading Sunni state. Meanwhile, the Emirates as open collaborators remain totally insulated and in war with their ex-allied Saudis on many fronts.
But the biggest gain is the inclusion of Lebanon into the Iranian shield of deterrence against Zionism. The US-Iranian agreement is contingent on ending Israeli aggression on Lebanon which Israel is neither able nor willing to accept. Trump will have a hard time ask for restrain putting his very political coalition in jeopardy. It is possible that the instable agreement with Iran will hold for a certain period of time as a swiftly renewed imperialist aggression would further strengthen Iran. But Zionism seems determined to continue its offensive supported by its population towards paroxysm. And the US is obliged to follow as the fall of Zionism will also sound the death knell of its supremacy. So sooner or later a new war in West Asia is inevitable with its multiple fronts and popular involvements always holding surprises in store.
If Iran will prove able to maintain and consolidate its victory, it can be considered a major step towards a multipolar order as Iran is no proxy neither of Russia let only China. It will also other second tier nation state to thrive and will lend much more space to popular movements. (Actually, it is not by accident that the US-Iran agreement does not include Palestine and Gaza.)
But let’s turn back to the Russian front. Trump remains hostage to the Zionist neo-cons eventually rendering the death of Trumpism inevitable. That also implies the impossibility to offer a substantial compromise to the Kremlin. The West in not even ready to offer the Kissinger formula (Crimea and Donbass for Russia, rest of Ukraine to the USA) let alone a neutral status for Ukraine which is de facto Russia’s central demand.
This is also due to the exhaustion of the Russian advance on the battlefield which has given way to a strategic stalemate. This war of attrition could last for many years to come. The West is determined to pour in a maximum of industrial resources preparing a war economy while Russian society seems tired of further strain especially the bourgeoisie and the urban middle classes which continue to hope for a re-integration.
But the main reason of the stalemate is neither military nor economic, it is political. Essentially the Kremlin set all its bets on military power projection even deploying the nuclear threat. It did not much take care of differentiating Ukrainian society and trying to split significant parts of its population from pro-imperialist nationalism. While maintaining that Russians and Ukrainians were one nation which historically might contain a certain truth, the Kremlin’s political campaign against Ukraine as a nation facilitated the very birth of a Ukrainian nation as a mass phenomenon which never succeeded during the 20th century.
Putin attacked Lenin for having lend statehood to Ukraine. But by doing so he created one common anti-imperialist (and initially socialist) Soviet people able to defeat German imperialism in an unprecedented way historically marginalising pro-imperialist Ukrainian nationalism. Now we see the reverse to happen giving way to something we could call imperialist popular war. Without the extraordinary perseverance of Ukrainian nationalism also unlimited imperialist military support would not avoid Ukrainian defeat.
There have been many signs of political differentiation within Ukrainian society all along the way of Western intervention starting with the split of the Soviet Union. Especially the fratricidal war developed by fascist-type Ukrainian nationalism against Russia is leading Ukraine into an historic disaster. Russia needs to offer democratic neutrality to Ukraine exposing Ukrainian nationalism as a stooge of Western imperialism eventually opening the way towards anti-imperialist unity. Great Russian nationalism in the end is a recipe to defeat for an anti-imperialist Russian nation.
But it is not only about the Ukrainian people. It is also about the Western popular masses, though to a lesser extent. There has been important popular support for peace with Russia on terms of respecting Russian sovereignty across different Western counties especially in decisive Germany. But the Kremlin was not able to make use of that. Let’s draw the limited analogy with the Palestinian struggle which is being totally ostracised by the Western propaganda machine but nevertheless gained massive popular support to the point to become a decisive political factor. Certainly, a people without a state mounting resistance is a different thing than the second most powerful state on earth. But in the end, they both do confront US imperialism.
We call for Ukrainian neutrality and the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe removing the ultimate reason for the war. The popular masses need to understand (to be taught) that it the West to want war and the very capitulation of Russia in the footsteps of German imperialism. That is in no way any guarantee for forthcoming peace or a softening of Western imperialist appetites. And it might be necessary to continue the military anti-imperialist defence for many years. But one thing is for sure: this anti-imperialist war cannot be one by military and economic means only but mainly by political ones.
Under given circumstances a defeat of imperialism seems not to be close any time soon. To signal readiness for a compromise would in the most optimist projection provide for the extraction of certain limits to Ukrainian militarisation. It might even be true that the West will cheat as it did time and again (see the Minsk agreement). But the political advantages to a never-ending war of attrition are more important as they offer the better possibilities to reverse the political relationship of forces in Ukraine and the West given the general advance of the resistances and the severe political crisis of the EU as well as the US leadership.
With regard to the Cuban front, we recognise that Trump is tempted to embark on yet another adventure promising an easy victory as in Venezuela propping up his deflating stature. But he thought the same on Iran and he was taught a lesson. Despite the extreme military disproportion, the political risks remain considerable. The Cuban revolution has certainly not exhausted its popular support otherwise it could not have resisted for decades with limited foreign support. Civil war and popular resistance are possible threatening to inflame anti-imperialist momentum across Latin America. The anti-imperialist movements need to lend full support and solidarity to sovereign Cuba and to demand the anti-imperialist powers to extend their desperately necessary statal support also at the cost of confrontation with US imperialism.
The ultimate enemy of the US empire is sovereign China. Washington is not in the position to attack now but only to prepare the insolation. On the other hand, the Chinese capitalist class led by the Communist party wants to avoid confrontation at any acceptable cost. And history is open. Given the resistances across the globe a full-blown military aggression does not look plausible in the foreseeable future. But declining US imperialism still is no paper tiger and is able to deliver significant and hard blows. We are amidst a combined global positional as we as mobile warfare. Fronts can change all of a sudden. Look to Lebanon where Zionism inflicted a significant defeat to the resistance only to see two years later with the renewed occupation its regained strength turning the tide. A Russian defeat could change the picture totally opening the way to war against China.
The most important lesson of history is that anti-imperialist resistance and liberation need significant popular support while not neglecting state capacities. The multipolar world is a necessary step ahead. But it does not necessarily mean the end of imperialism(s) nor of capitalist wars. The popular anti-imperialist leaderships need to overcome or at least cushion inner conflicts to allow for the most far-reaching unification against the imperialist powers whether unified (or split) preparing for new socialist attempts. The old rule is still valid that these struggles are centred at the periphery but without involving and splitting the centres anti-imperialist victories will remain endangered. A long period of imperialist wars, statal and popular anti-imperialist resistances and popular anti-capitalist revolution lay ahead of us.
