Popular support indispensable to win the long battle
International resolution on the situation in the Gulf and Russia
endorsed by:
Fronte del Dissenso (Italy); United Communist Party of Russia; American Communist Party (USA); Antiimperialistische Koordination (Austria); Zannekinbond, Flanders (Belgium; Nación Andaluza (Spanish state); Anti-Jindal & Anti-POSCO Movement (JPPSS ), Odisha (India); Partido da Causa Operária (PCO), Brazil
The USA is desperately trying to preserve its waning supremacy. By employing its strongest tool, its military superiority, they are attempting to halt the secular decline. But they are about to reach a tipping point fueling the fires of resistance even more. They have committed resources to too many wars while all economic, social, political and cultural factors go in reverse. The Zionist genocide is the symbolic expression of a general situation exposing imperialist massacre but leaving the resistance undefeated. For this, US-Israeli led imperialism will pay a heavy price down the line.
Since the very onset of the American Empire, the neocon doctrine has been to strike their enemies pre-emptively. But already the “war on terror” launched two decades ago has essentially produced defeats (or at maximum stalemates), as in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Against the backdrop of the socio-economic disaster of US-led capitalist globalisation and the rise of China, which is determined not to submit, the resistances of both states as well as people have been growing ever since. The world is pregnant with a multipolar order. But the USA does whatever possible to abort the unborn child and it will be necessary to deliver some decisive anti-imperialist victories.
These global resistances have been reflected in the frictions and power struggles within the USA itself, which has given birth to Trumpism and scattering the bipartite political system. The Republican party nearly collapsed, while the Democratic party has been forced to move to the left, pretending more distance from Zionism. Trump heads a kind of imperialist populism, aiming at rewinning support from some parts of the middle classes with a peculiar combination of White supremacy and a promise to end the permanent US wars. This has already been proven impossible and will inevitably lead to the decomposition of Trumpism, with unknown results. The prospect of structurally higher petroleum prices will accelerate the decay. It is safe to predict further conflict coming, raising the spectre of civil war.
Trump wanted to engineer a compromise with Russia; this compromise would violate the historic consensus of US imperialism, which is to aim to subordinate Russia as an indispensable condition to maintain the empire. (The deeper strategic idea behind this is that the U.S. needs to split Russia from China to keep China down – but the Neo-con hubris hybris does not allow this Nixonian turn on reverse as it discards the monopolar conception.) The momentum reached its climax with the Alaska summit in August 2025. But Trump was not strong enough to impose himself on the state apparatus.
There are many reasons for that: The weakening military momentum of Russia. The anti-Russian fervour of the EU (to be analysed separately). The perseverance of Ukrainian nationalism, which has held onto mass support. The weakness of the peace movement in the West.
One further factor consists of the deep penetration of Zionism into the US state apparatus with the neo-con faction as its total amalgamation in its heart, which eventually bogged down Trump regarding Russia. Trumpism is fully dependent on Zionism. It not only lends unlimited support to the genocide in Palestine but also has embarked on the unwinnable war on Iran, instigated by Israel. In fact, that part of the MAGA base is now about to turn against Zionism will inevitably lead to the split and downfall of Trumpism.
For 30 years the neo-cons have been campaigning for full-blown military aggression to topple the Islamic anti-imperialist state in Iran. But the US establishment had so far refrained from such an adventure due to the high risk of producing another failure like in Iraq, which is in any case a much weaker country. Just as Hitler’s two-front war had no rationale except the racist impulse proclaiming absolute Aryan supremacy, the Zionist idea to annihilate Iran has no rational base but self-deception and the very same White supremacy.
It is an irony of history that it was Trump who followed the neo-cons into the abyss despite his promise to break with the deep state. He plunged into the adventure and failed miserably, as was predictable. No “regime change” resulted, but an enormously strengthened Islamic government both internally as well as externally. And the total demise of the pro-imperialist Iranian opposition, as the popular masses, including the Westernised middle classes turned to the patriotic defence of their country. Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz (which will remain as a bargaining chip pushing up energy prices) and power projection into the Gulf, which puts in question the very societal model of the Gulf pro-imperialist oil states. This is being expressed by the de facto end of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). Saudi Arabia had to realign with Turkey and Qatar, softening its war on the Muslim Brotherhood, which can be considered popular base for a capitalist model of rule that is less subservient to US-Israel. Turkey has been gradually strengthened, wielding patronage over Syria but also being confronted with the (popular) demand to rein in Israel’s rampage. If Erdogan and his successors are able to maintain the balancing acts between the powers (reflecting the multi-polar momentum and weakening NATO of which Turkey is an important member), Turkey is candidate to re-establish itself as the leading Sunni state. Meanwhile, the Emirates as open collaborators with imperialism remain totally insulated and in war with their ex-allied Saudis on many fronts.
But the biggest gain is the inclusion of Lebanon into the Iranian shield of deterrence against Zionism. The US-Iranian agreement is contingent on ending Israeli aggression on Lebanon, a condition which Israel is neither able nor willing to accept. Trump will have a hard time asking for restraint, which puts his very political coalition in jeopardy. It is possible that the unstable agreement with Iran will hold for a certain period of time as a swiftly renewed imperialist aggression would further strengthen Iran. But Zionism seems determined to continue its offensive supported by its population, which is moving towards paroxysm. And the US is obliged to follow, as the fall of Zionism will also sound the death knell of US supremacy. So sooner or later a new war in West Asia is inevitable with its multiple fronts and popular involvements always holding surprises in store.
If Iran proves able to maintain and consolidate its victory, its success can be considered a major step towards a multipolar order, since Iran is no proxy, not of Russia, let alone China. This victory will also allow other second-tier nation states to thrive and will lend much more space to popular movements. (Actually, it is not by accident that the US-Iran agreement does not include Palestine and Gaza.)
But let’s turn back to the Russian front. Trump remains hostage to the Zionist neo-cons, eventually rendering the death of Trumpism inevitable. That also implies the impossibility to offer a substantial compromise to the Kremlin. The West in not even ready to offer the Kissinger formula (Crimea and Donbass for Russia, rest of Ukraine to the USA) let alone a neutral status for Ukraine, which is de facto Russia’s central demand.
This is also due to the exhaustion of the Russian advance on the battlefield, which has given way to a strategic stalemate. This war of attrition could last for many years to come. The West is determined to pour in a maximum of industrial resources, preparing a war economy while Russian society seems tired of further strain, especially since the bourgeoisie and the urban middle classes continue to hope for a re-integration into global capitalism.
But the main reason for the stalemate is neither military nor economic, it is political. Essentially, the Kremlin set all its bets on military power projection, even deploying the nuclear threat. It did not much take care of differentiating within Ukrainian society and trying to split significant parts of its population from pro-imperialist nationalism. While maintaining that Russians and Ukrainians were one nation, which historically might contain a certain truth, the Kremlin’s political campaign denying that Ukraine was a nation facilitated the very birth of a Ukrainian nation as a mass phenomenon. This idea never took hold during the 20th century.
Putin attacked Lenin for having authorized statehood for Ukraine. But by doing so Lenin created one common anti-imperialist (and initially socialist) Soviet people able to defeat German imperialism in an unprecedented way, historically marginalising pro-imperialist Ukrainian nationalism. Now we see the reverse about to happen, giving way to something we could call imperialist popular war. Without the extraordinary perseverance of Ukrainian nationalism even unlimited imperialist military support would not avoid Ukrainian defeat.
There have been many signs of political differentiation within Ukrainian society all along the way of Western intervention starting with the split of the Soviet Union. The fratricidal war developed by fascist-type Ukrainian nationalism against Russia is especially leading Ukraine into an historic disaster. Russia needs to offer democratic neutrality to Ukraine, which would expose the Ukrainian nationalists as stooges of Western imperialism and eventually open the way towards anti-imperialist unity. Great Russian nationalism in the end is a recipe to defeat for an anti-imperialist Russian nation.
But the challenge is not only about the Ukrainian people. It is also about the Western popular masses, though to a lesser extent. Across different Western counties and especially in decisive Germany, there has been strong popular support for peace with Russia on terms of respecting Russian sovereignty. But the Kremlin was not able to make use of that. Let’s draw the limited analogy with the Palestinian struggle, which is being totally ostracised by the Western propaganda machine but nevertheless gained massive popular support to the point where this support became a decisive political factor. Certainly, a people without a state mounting resistance is a different thing than the second most powerful state on earth. But in the end, they both do confront US imperialism.
We call for Ukrainian neutrality and the withdrawal of NATO from Eastern Europe, thus removing the ultimate reason for the war. The popular masses need to understand (to be taught) that it the West that wants war and demands the very capitulation of Russia, just as German imperialism did in World War II. Convincing the masses in no way guarantees forthcoming peace or a softening of Western imperialist appetites. And it might be necessary to continue the military anti-imperialist defence for many years. But one thing is for sure: this anti-imperialist war cannot be won by military and economic means only, but mainly by political means.
Under the given circumstances, a defeat of imperialism seems not to be close any time soon. To signal readiness for a compromise would in the most optimist projection provide for the extraction of certain limits to Ukrainian militarisation. It might even be true that the West will cheat as it did time and again (see the Minsk agreement). But the political advantages over waging a never-ending war of attrition are more important, as they offer the better possibilities to reverse the political relationship of forces in Ukraine and the West given the general advance of the resistances and the severe political crisis of the EU as well as the US leadership.
With regard to the Cuban front, we recognise that Trump is tempted to embark on yet another adventure promising an easy victory as in Venezuela and propping up his deflating stature. But he thought the same about a war with Iran and he was taught a lesson. Despite the extreme military disproportion with Cuba, the political risks remain considerable. The Cuban revolution has certainly not exhausted its popular support, otherwise it could not have resisted for decades with limited foreign support. Civil war and popular resistance are possible and threaten to inflame anti-imperialist momentum across Latin America. The anti-imperialist movements need to lend full support and solidarity to sovereign Cuba and to demand the anti-imperialist powers to extend their desperately necessary state support, also at the cost of confrontation with US imperialism.
The ultimate enemy of the US empire is sovereign China. Washington is not in the position to attack now but only to prepare the insolation. On the other hand, the Chinese capitalist class led by the Communist party wants to avoid confrontation at any acceptable cost. And history is open. Given the resistances across the globe a full-blown military aggression does not look plausible in the foreseeable future. But declining US imperialism still is no paper tiger and is able to deliver significant and hard blows. We are amidst a combined global positional as well as mobile warfare. Fronts can change all of a sudden. Look to Lebanon where Zionism inflicted a significant defeat to the resistance only to see two years later the renewed occupation having regained strength and turning the tide. A Russian defeat could change the picture totally, opening the way to war against China.
The most important lesson of history is that anti-imperialist resistance and liberation need significant popular support while not neglecting state capacities. The multipolar world is a necessary step ahead. But it does not necessarily mean the end of imperialism(s) nor of capitalist wars. The popular anti-imperialist leaderships need to overcome or at least cushion inner conflicts to allow for the most far-reaching unification against the imperialist powers whether unified (or split) preparing for new socialist attempts. The old rule is still valid that these struggles are centred at the periphery but without involving and splitting the imperialist centres, anti-imperialist victories will remain endangered. A long period of imperialist wars, state and popular anti-imperialist resistances and popular anti-capitalist revolution lay ahead of us.
